Report Says PA-07, PA-10 Now Lean D; PA-01 Leans R. This is the PoliticsPA Playbook.
Hello, Friday. 25 days until the midterms
Your Morning Pick Me Up. What I Like About You. The Romantics
PA Weather
McKees Rocks | Sunny, 72 Middletown | Sunny, 72 Mount Pocono | Sunny, 64
PA Sports 
Steelers (2-2) | Sun vs. Indianapolis Eagles (2-2) | Sun vs. Jacksonville Pitt (5-0) | Sat vs. North Carolina Penn State (3-2) | Sat vs. USC Temple (2-3) | Sat vs. UConn
Union (11W, 6D, 10L) | Sat vs. Salt Lake
Flyers (0-3-2) | Ottawa 1-2 | Sat at Boston | Sun vs. Carolina Penguins (2-2) | Fri at Columbus | Sat vs. Dallas
What We’re Hearing. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is coming to Bucks County to rally with Gov. Josh Shapiro and PA-01 candidate Bob Harvie on Saturday.
Tips. PoliticsPA is Pennsylvania’s premier source for nonpartisan political news and analysis. Tips or press releases can be sent to steve@politicspa.com.
The PoliticsPA Playbook is compiled by Steve Ulrich. For the web version, click here. Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe here.
Top Story
“In the final weeks of the election, Republicans have hoped that a massive ad campaign effort could dent Democratic candidates’ images and shore up Republicans struggling to free themselves of the anchor of President Donald Trump.
With less than four weeks to go, that heavy spending has yet to move the needle.
That is a key factor prompting us to move ratings for 18 more House races, all in Democrats’ favor, including PA-01, PA-07 and PA-10.” | The Cook Political Report
Elsewhere
Midterms 2026: Bob Harvie vs. Brian Fitzpatrick in PA-01. “Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District race has been very combative. The Bucks County swing district has sent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick to Congress five times. This year the former FBI agent faces Democrat Bob Harvie, a Bucks County Commissioner and former public school teacher.” | WHYY
Where Perry, Stelson Stand On Campaign Finance Reform, Anti-Corruption Policies. “While campaign finance reform is a key issue of Janelle Stelson’s platform, Scott Perry opposes capping political donations. They align most on anti-corruption issues, both favoring banning stock trading and imposing term limits for members of Congress.” | Spotlight PA
Obama Throws Support Behind Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro’s Reelection Bid As Former President Enters Midterm Fray. “Former President Barack Obama is throwing his support behind Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro’s reelection campaign, releasing a video endorsement Friday as the former president steps up his involvement in key Senate and gubernatorial races in the final stretch before the midterm elections.” | CBS News
Garrity Vows to Cut Utility Bills, Expand School Choice in PA if Elected Governor. “Republican gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity said Thursday that “running for governor was never on my bingo card” but she saw Pennsylvania failing to reach its potential under Gov. Josh Shapiro.” | PennLive
State
“If Democrats make big gains in the midterm elections in four weeks, it may not only be because their most loyal voters come out in force, or because their candidates have converted Republican voters to their cause.
Instead, the Democrats’ dream blue wave could come from Republicans who sour on President Donald Trump and stay home. It already has a name: the red undertow.” | New York Times
Elsewhere
Garrity Missed Crucial Opportunities During Debate, Political Experts Say. “Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity missed opportunities to defend her ties to President Donald Trump and deliver stronger attacks on Gov. Josh Shapiro during Wednesday night’s gubernatorial debate, according to five Pennsylvania political experts.” | LNP
As Deadline Nears, Consensus On Pennsylvania Skills Games Seems Far Off In Harrisburg. “With the clock running out for Pennsylvania’s “skill games,” industry supporters are trying to convince the state’s highest court that state officials just need a bit more time to draft new rules for the industry to keep it alive. But the past few days suggest there’s a long way to go before an agreement is reached.” | WESA
Pennsylvania Lawmakers Ask Court To Delay Skill Games Ban. “With a week to go before more than 70,000 skill games become illegal, legislators have asked the Pennsylvania Supreme Court for a four-month extension to determine how to regulate the machines and prevent them from being seized from scores of bars, gas stations, fraternal clubs and storefronts throughout the state.” | Erie Times-News
Garrity Stands By Vaccines As She Brushes Off Attempts to Tie Her to RFK Jr. “In an effort to distance herself from U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. amid Pennsylvania’s worst measles outbreak in decades, Republican gubernatorial candidate Stacy Garrity said she is vaccinated against the measles and encouraged others to do the same.” | LNP
Why Mailing a Ballot Close to Election Day May Get It Rejected For a Late Postmark. “The risk stems from mailing system changes that began last year. And those changes have pushed some election officials to encourage voters to consider returning their ballots at their local election office or any available drop boxes instead.” | NPR
Around The Commonwealth
“When the U.S. Department of Homeland Security publicized the arrest of a Nigerian man for indecent exposure this week, it included a political attack that’s drawing complaints from Democrats and a nonpartisan government watchdog.
The department’s press release alleges that the man worked for a Democratic congressional candidate in a Pennsylvania battleground district, an unusual reference to a high-profile midterm contest.” | AP
Elsewhere
Allegheny County Lawmakers Tee Up a Final Vote on the Controversial Paid Parental Leave Policy. “A proposal to require employers in Allegheny County to provide paid parental leave cleared a key hurdle Thursday when County Council’s Committee on Health voted to send the legislation to the full council, which could vote on it as early as Oct. 20.” | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
State Navigate Poll: Dead Heat in 46th Senate Race Between Bartolotta and Borello. “Another day, another poll … this one, though, has some surprising results.” | PoliticsPA
Independent Candidate Closes In On Republican Senate Incumbent As Dark Money Spending Surges. “An unusual and competitive race is brewing in western Pennsylvania, featuring an independent candidate aided by a heaping of dark money.” | Spotlight PA
2026 Election Preview: 82nd Legislative District. “A Centre County contest pits incumbent Paul Takac against challenger Kirsten McTernan.” | PoliticsPA
These Are the 5 Lehigh Valley Political Races to Watch — They Could Determine Who Controls the State House, Senate. “This November, Lehigh Valley voters have one of the best chances in years to change the balance of power in Harrisburg.” | Morning Call
Editorial
1 Thing
“Shorter days, long nights, the first few cold evenings and mornings in months. Fall is here, and the 2026 Fall Foliage Season is shaping up to be one of the best in years. Ample summer rainfall has brought 96.2% of the state completely out of drought conditions. One year ago today, only 2.2% of the state wasn’t under any drought category.
Another thing we’ve had a lot of lately is sunny days and cooler nights, which are an ideal combination for vibrant fall foliage across Pennsylvania.” | PA Weather Action
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It’s a three-day weekend. Let’s celebrate.
