“In the final weeks of the election, Republicans have hoped that a massive ad campaign effort could dent Democratic candidates’ images and shore up Republicans struggling to free themselves of the anchor of President Donald Trump.
With less than four weeks to go, that heavy spending has yet to move the needle.”
That’s the word from Erin Covey, U.S. House of Representatives for The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter (CPR). Her analysis prompted CPR to move ratings for 18 more House races, all in Democrats’ favor.
Three of those moves involved Pennsylvania races:
The other hotly-contested Keystone State congressional race remained in the Toss Up category in PA-08 between Rob Bresnahan (R) and Paige Cognetti (D).
As CPR views the overall race for control of the U.S. House, it sees 185 as Solid Democrat and 174 as Solid Republican; 16 as Likely Democrat and 18 as Likely Republican; 12 as Lean Democrat and 9 as Lean Republican; and 21 as Toss Ups.
Putting the likelys and the leaners in their respective camps, Democrats have a 213-201 advantage and would need to win just five of the Toss Up contests to take majority control of the chamber.
“With these new moves, we’re also adjusting our range: the most likely outcome is now that Democrats will pick up nine to 19 seats,” wrote Covey. “That would give them 224 seats on the lower end and 234 on the upper end. At this point, Democrats only need to win 20% of the Toss Ups to get to a majority, assuming the seats that favor Democrats in our ratings all break their way.
“House races are won in the districts, one by one, with battle-tested candidates and messages that work,” NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement. “Pundits in D.C. can keep guessing, but voters on the ground have a clear contrast between common sense and crazy,” he said, adding that “in November, we’re going to win.”
In 2024, the CPR final analysis prior to Election Day listed PA-07, PA-08 and PA-10 as Toss Ups, while PA-01 leaned Republican. Mackenzie and Bresnahan ousted their sitting opponents, while Perry and Fitzpatrick earned another term in Washington.
